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Evaluating the Orlando Magic's Preseason Rotation

With five preseason games in the books, with three left to play, it's time for Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy to finish making plans for his playing rotation, as the season is but nine days away. That's the focus of Brian Schmitz's feature on the Magic for today's Orlando Sentinel; in a separate notebook piece, Schmitz reports that Van Gundy estimated he has used at least 20 different player combinations so far in the preseason.

The Sentinel's emphasis on the playing rotation today, coupled with Eddy's practice report yesterday, made me curious. I investigated just how many lineups Van Gundy had used throughout (71!), noting which ones appeared most often, and especially the ones that could serve as the starting lineup on opening night. Make the jump to read my findings.

Star-divide

A major caveat with evaluating any of these lineups: most only appeared for portions of one game, against one opponent, so--to adapt a phrase from the advertising industry--your results against other teams may vary!

First, the most interesting information: how the two most likely starting lineups for the first ten games, during which All-Star forward Rashard Lewis will serve a suspension for steroids, fared. The first lineup, featuring Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter in the backcourt with Matt Barnes, Brandon Bass, and Dwight Howard up front, rated a +5 in 11:00 of playing time together. The variation of that lineup, which subs the Lewis-like Anderson for Bass at power forward, was a +7 in 6:24 of tick. The latter stat isn't inflated by Ryan Anderson's barrage of three-pointers against Memphis, either, as Van Gundy only used that combination in the second game of the preseason, and hasn't used it since. Based on per-minute scoring, the Anderson lineup appears to be the better choice, although we are indeed watching Small Sample Size Theater. In the extreme, even.

Second, the "conventional" lineup that many mainstream media believe the Magic will use upon Lewis' return--which puts Lewis in Barnes' place at small forward, with free-agent signee Bass at power forward--did not appear until the most recent game, a 121-86 drubbing of the New Orleans Hornets. It rated a +4 in 6:47, which is not spectacular in a game the Magic won by 35 points.

Third, the lineup that's played together longest--Nelson and Carter at the guards, with Lewis, Bass, and reserve center Marcin Gortat up front--hasn't done much damage, with an even differential of 0 in 13:29. The second-longest-used lineup is even wonkier, as it features five players who may very well find themselves coming off the bench for the entire season. That lineup has Anthony Johnson running the point, with J.J. Redick and Mickael Pietrus on the wings, and the Anderson/Gortat tag-team at the power positions. Van Gundy's used it for 12:35 over the course of 2 games, with decent results: a +/- rating of 8.

Summarily, there's probably not much for us to take from these results, as--all together now!--"it's only the preseason." However, setting aside the +/- figures for a moment, we can at least see which lineups Van Gundy tends to use, and thus which ones could log major minutes together in the regular season. That much is at least valuable, yes?

If there's any interest, I'll revisit this topic after the preseason schedule runs its course. The last game tips off Friday against Atlanta.

Meta note: the photo accompanying this post is a bit outdated (hi, Hedo Turkoglu!), but it's also the only good shot of the Magic's bench I haven't used yet.

0 recs  |  Comment 19 comments |

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With Gortat, JJ and WIlliams anchoring the 2nd unit ...

For the last week or so VanGundy has been saying over and over how pleased he is with Gortat, JJ and WIlliams in together and that it hasn’t made much difference what forward combinations he has put with those three since they are playing so well together….This leads me to think that Pietrus will join them at the 3 since he gives the most offensive punch of the available 3’s and Anderson at the 4 to again provide some scoring from the outside with this group… That leaves Bass to start ot the 4 with the first unit and Barnes to start at the 3…Ultimately if this logic holds true it, sadly, leaves Anderson out of the rotation when Lewis returns unless they can somehow work Bass in at the 3 (I can’t help but believe Pietrus will hurt himself several times over the course of the season and another 3 will be needed (unless that becomes Lewis).

Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.

by jack32174 on Oct 19, 2009 9:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would agree with your overall assessment.

I do think Ryan will see minutes, but more based on matchups than anything else.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 19, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would start.. Game 1...

Jameer, Vince, Peitrus, Ryan Anderson, and D12.. Pull Brand out of the middle..

So we play Courtney Game 2, and Hedo Game 3. This might be year I purchase the NBA ticket..

"No matter where you go, you are what you are playa"-Jay Z
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by Wmillion on Oct 19, 2009 9:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Brand isn't the best defender

so really you would just be doing that to get his legs tired or something like that.

by fwedo on Oct 19, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pietrus needs to come off the bench because he can back-up the 2 and the 3.

Barnes can only realistically back-up the 3, so he needs to start for rotation continuity.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 19, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think he needs 24+ minutes to be the most effective and it doesn’t matter if he starts or not I think, as long as he gets those minutes range where some basic stats suggest he plays the best in. He’s too good a defender too and his playoff offense has carried over so far.

by derekk on Oct 19, 2009 3:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Pietrus has been shooting lights-out in pre-season.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 19, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was really accurate last year too, before he got injured

I think he was shooting around 50% from the field before that injury.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Oct 19, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mickael is more aggressive, which I think is important trait in a second-unit.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 19, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yea you could be right. I wouldn’t mind him taking more shots in the second unit as long as he plays hard D out there. He could be a go-to-ish guy for the second unit.

by derekk on Oct 19, 2009 4:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

The most optimal 5 man unit

I thought the best five should be starting (Pietrus at 3 and the rest are the All Stars) but SVG said no in one of the recent quotes. He’s putting more emphasis on the best rotation. I stand corrected becuase I see SVG starting Barnes now instead, he seems slightly better off the ball and sharing/passing despite less potential defense and shooting/offense of Pietrus. When it comes to the end stretch of close games tho, the best five will be out there whomever they be, 4 All Stars and then Pietrus right now in my mind. I dont think Bass or Anderson justify it by the overall effect of Lewis as a wing player on defense and the 5 man unit yet.

by derekk on Oct 19, 2009 4:18 PM EDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

I've been impressed by Barnes so far.

He’s a tough defender, and his scoring has been reasonably accurate so far.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Oct 19, 2009 11:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The tough part is, EVERYONE has looked good in the preseason.

http://www.dougstats.com/PreSeason/OrlandoMagic.html

(Granted, only through four games. But hey, that means it doesn’t include the blowout against the Hornets.)

Anderson’s been crazy efficient on offense… counting the last 2 games, he’s 31-61 from the field, with 24 threes made (!!), for 96 points in 125 minutes. There is NO WAY we don’t find room for a guy like that, right?

But so has Bass — 25-41 from the field, 74 points in 146 minutes. (And this despite uncharacteristically poor free-throw shooting — he’s 24-35 so far, despite being well above 80% for his career. That should correct itself in time.)

Bass has been the slightly better rebounder — 35-23, though remember he’s played 21 more minutes. But really, both of these guys deserve a lot of time, and it’s still not there for them.

(Lewis has also been great, of course — 26-50 from the field, 84 points in 154 minutes.)

It’s a similar situation with Pietrus and Barnes; Pietrus has of course been on this hot streak (82 points in 143 minutes on 31-61 shooting). Barnes hasn’t been QUITE as dominant on offense, but for what we’re asking Barnes to do, 46 points in 125 minutes on 14-31 shooting is just fine. And of course he’s been impressive on defense.

So as we expected, too many forwards. And we can give Pietrus some minutes at the 2, no question. But we can’t push Bass up to center, because Gortat’s averaging over a rebound per 3 minutes, blocking 2 shots a game, and shooting 75% from the field.

In fact, I’d say the only ones who don’t look like good offensive options in this data are Vince and the backup points. (And after tonight’s 0-7 performance, the luster’s off Redick a bit as well.) And we know that for Vince, it’s just that the shots haven’t been falling, and they’ve started falling in the last couple games. (He’s up to 35-76 shooting — around 46% — after 6 preseason games. He’s ready.) Jason Williams’ shooting percentage still remains a question mark, though his 6 assists per game should secure him ample playing time.

I mean, yeah, small sample size. But basically, the predictions were true: we have more good players than we have minutes, especially at the forward positions.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Oct 20, 2009 12:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm real curious how Stan handles the rotation once Rashard returns from his suspension.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 20, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is crazy good. We may see more Lewis at 3 to make to make time for Ryan and Bass if they keep it up.

by derekk on Oct 20, 2009 2:30 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

One specific question!

How about the Ryan Anderson/Rashard Lewis combination? I feel like this gives us a look very much like the ‘08-’09 starting lineup in terms of offense - has Stan used this much, and how has it done in terms of +/?

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Oct 20, 2009 12:09 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think you'll see that duo together, at times, during the regular season.

Probably when the matchups dictate themselves.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 20, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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