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What's Up, Ryan?

So far in exhibition play, Ryan Anderson has turned heads in Orlando with his excellent play on offense and starting to make Magic fans recognize that he wasn't just a "throw-in" in the trade that brought him and Vince Carter from the New Jersey Nets during the off-season. Anderson can play, as his statistics in pre-season action after four games poignantly prove - sporting an effective field goal percentage of 62.5%, buoyed mostly by the fact he has shot 50% from beyond the arc (14-28). Because Anderson has played so well offensively, Dwight Howard has stated to me - twice - that he sees him as the "new Pat Garrity", given that they are both deadly perimeter shooters who can spread the floor at the power forward position.

 

However, is that a fair comparison to make?

 

The numbers of Kevin Pelton's SCHOENE player projection system and the eyes of David Thorpe would disagree, but what do some of the other statistics say? 

 

There's an answer.

 

I decided to take a look at Garrity's best season as a pro in the NBA and compare his stats to what Anderson was able to produce as a rookie for the Nets this past season.

 

Picture_1_medium 

As you can see in the table above, Garrity's career-year isn't better than Anderson's first year in the Association. Although there are similarities in the per-minute data and the shooting efficiencies of both players, Anderson rates as the slightly superior player because of his ability to rebound much better than his counterpart. Safe to say, Anderson's 'floor' as a player is Garrity but his 'ceiling' is much higher.

 

What other differences are there? The main one, on offense, is the fact that Garrity was strictly a perimeter shooter and Anderson is not. Anderson can do so much more offensively - he can drive to the basket, he can post up, and more. In essence, Anderson has a more complete offensive repertoire than Garrity. Now, people at the Amway Arena haven't seen this "entire package" much when Anderson has been on the floor because more than half of his field goal attempts have been three-pointers. But rest assured, the ability is there, as Anderson put his post-game game on display during the 2009 Orlando Pro Summer League a few months ago. As for everything else, Anderson is more athletic and defensively, has more ability on that side of the ball.

 

So, what exactly is a fair comparison for Anderson right now

 

How about a poor man's Andrea Bargnani? Not a perfect comparison, of course, but for all the hype, money, and talent Bargnani brings to the table for the Toronto Raptors as the first pick in the 2006 NBA Draft, there isn't much of a discernible difference between him and Anderson when you look at the numbers (and that's Bargnani's third season in the NBA). Now granted, Bargnani had a strong second-half last year but it doesn't ignore the fact that him and Anderson have similar offensive skill-sets, for the most part. There's a stark difference, though, between the two individuals when it comes to defending, rebounding, etc (the latter is better). Likewise, John Hollinger projects Anderson to have a higher PER than Bargnani in the upcoming season, though playing time does factor into the projections. Even in that case, it's hard to ignore how the players compared last year.

 

Ryan Anderson Andrea Bargnani
Games Played 66 78
Minutes Played 19.9 31.4
1 year adj. plus/minus +3.20 -9.26
net plus/minus +3.5 -6.5
statistical plus/minus -0.04 -0.88
PER 13.6 14.6
WARP 1.9 1.6
Win Shares 2.4 3.9

 

There are a number of players in the league who one can compare Anderson to, but with all due respect to Howard, Pat Garrity isn't one of them. Anderson is superior.

 

And when you factor in Stan Van Gundy's ability to maximize potential and talent, as long as Anderson remains with Orlando, who knows how good he can become.

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I've considered Howard's comments as well,

and appreciate your statistical analysis. A poor man’s Andrea is a good analogy. However, I think we can also view Howard’s comments as a testament to his feelings about Garrity. Garrity was the rickety veteran when Howard came into the league, who tried to find his third, fourth, and fifth wind as a reserve. Despite his injuries, Garrity was always a class act and a good teammate who could shoot the lights out.

by downbeatitude on Oct 16, 2009 10:15 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, you're right.

I think we can all agree Howard was just trying to mean well with the comparison.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 16, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

How About Comparing Him to Rashard?

I’ve heard Anderson compared to Troy Murphy (I’d be thrilled if that was his ceiling) and Pat Garrity (let’s hope not). Perhaps he’s got a bit of Bargnani (hopefully he’ll be more consistent, but I’m doubtful he’ll throw in any shot blocking) and maybe even a bit of Charlie Villanueva.

But the obvious comparison seems to be Rashard Lewis, doesn’t it?

Howard is our key player, but Lewis helps create the mismatches and define the Magic’s whole system. Lewis made the most 3 pointers in the league last season (and did it from the PF position) so obviously what he does is a huge part of our identity.

Looking at it that way takes some sting off that contract. Let’s call it the cost of finding a system of play that suits your star player (as great of a GM as I believe Otis Smith is, I think he out-bidded himself for the best player available and got really lucky that Lewis ended up being the critical piece to play beside Howard).

Now I think Otis Smith is in the enviable position of knowing what he needs on the floor to support Howard, and he’s looking to duplicate what he has in Lewis — cheap(er) and young(er).

Just for fun, let’s compare Anderson’s Per 36 Minutes in his first year to Lewis’ Per 36 Minutes in his second year (courtesy of basketballreference.com). This way, we’re comparing them at the same age (20) with roughly the same amount of basketball experience.

Lewis: 1999-2000

FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
6.3 12.9 .486 0.9 2.7 .333 2.9 2.8 .683 2.9 4.8 7.7 1.6 1.4 0.8 1.8 3.7 15.4

Anderson: 2008-2009

FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
4.4 11.2 .393 1.9 5.2 .365 2.7 3.2 .845 2.9 5.7 8.5 1.4 1.2 0.5 1.7 4.3 13.4

Their stats look pretty similar to me. Lewis was the much better finisher, while Anderson’s 3-point shooting is already fully developed. Anderson is also a slightly better rebounder, although this is debatable since they weren’t playing the same position at this time.

There are many variables in play here (style of play, different positions, rosters, etc.), and I’d love to hear everybody’s opinion on the topic. But it seems to me that Ryan Anderson’s ceiling could very well be Rashard Lewis.

by Hoop Dreams on Oct 16, 2009 10:49 AM EDT reply actions  

I think that's a bit of a stretch.

Rashard was a kid straight out of high school. You’ve got to give his stats a handicap.

by downbeatitude on Oct 16, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Anderson played a season in the freaking Pac10

’Shard’s stats don’t need a handicap at all.

One year in the NBA > One year in the Pac10 AND they’re the same age.

by fwedo on Oct 16, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would have to side with David Thorpe in saying that Anderson is a Lewis-lite, at this point.

It’s tough to compare the two because Rashard just started playing power forward a few years ago. That being said, could that be Ryan’s ceiling as a player? Never know, it’s tough to say at this point.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 16, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Anderson is more "power forward" than Rashard is

What gives Rashard the advantage in most 4 match-ups is his athleticism and ability to play the 3 (offensively). Ryan has potential to be more skilled than most PF’s, but is not as quick and athletic to get full advantage that Rashard has. That’s the difference between those two, to me.

by bandrewg08 on Oct 16, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see what you're saying.

I think more PF’s will be like Anderson and Lewis, “four spreaders”, as Thorpe likes to call them.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 16, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

He has alot of similarities with Rashard but not completely the same either. My favorite target would be if Ryan could be as good as Troy Murphy.

by derekk on Oct 16, 2009 11:23 AM EDT reply actions  

That'd be a bit of a stretch.

The biggest difference between Ryan and Troy is rebounding, where they’re worlds apart.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 16, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is it too early to put this into consideration for best Headline

of a post for this season?

Because I’m REC’ing this just for that.

by fwedo on Oct 16, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Hah

Didn’t catch it until I read this.

Excellent.

by Jwoey on Oct 16, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL, I've been saving the title for a while.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 16, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thank You, Thank You, THANK YOU for doing this Eddy!!!

It practically made me gag when Dwight called him that and I expect in a few years the comparison will be laughable. Personally, the only similarity I see between the two are that their both tall white PFs that can shoot the 3 and play for the Magic.

I know Dwight was just being his goofy self but in this case it was unintentional insult.

Ryan is the real deal and if he can develop into a decent defender, he’ll be a force to reckon with for years to come!

Sigh . . . Now I need new AVATAR!

by blue-blood on Oct 16, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions  

This
I know Dwight was just being his goofy self but in this case it was unintentional insult.

by magicfaninTN on Oct 17, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I think comparing Anderson to Garrity isn't doing the kid proper justice.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 17, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pat Garrity? Nooooo

I’m still celebrating the day his 26 year, $148 million contract came off Orlando’s books. I couldnt believe how many coaches came in here and drank the Garrity Kool-Aid that he was a decent player. He was the only pure shooter I’ve seen that couldnt shoot for sh*t since Matt Walsh left UF.

by cambi1 on Oct 16, 2009 2:39 PM EDT reply actions  

What would be really interesting to know is how his ceiling compares to Courtney's.

Just going by age and years in college, Ryan would seem to have more room for improvement (As a reference, Dwight is 2 years older than Ryan, but younger than Lee). We all know what Ryan is capable of doing at the PF position, but will he get the minutes he needs to make those steps?

A lot of 4-year seniors (Lee) are what they are when they get enter the league. But in fairness to Courtney, he was a 20+ PPG scorer in college and had to change his role to perimeter-stopper with the Magic. With all the PT he’ll get in NJ, he will get plenty of opportunities to show off his scoring mentality.

So who has more potential?

by bandrewg08 on Oct 16, 2009 3:51 PM EDT reply actions  

The numbers say Anderson has the higher one.

Likewise, you have to take into account Lee’s age (24), which plays a role in his ceiling.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 16, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

The headline made me miss those Snickers commercials....

That’s all I got lol

"My features are that of a god, its not a facade these rappers wanna be NaS"- Nasir Jones QB's Finest

Founder and only member of the Kristin Kreuk Appreciation Society, and future Husband

Still miss em: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvvgVn0gg1E

by Wasabi Steak on Oct 16, 2009 5:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Hah.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 16, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

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