JAMEER NELSON — The messed-up part is that Jameer may have missed his only opportunity to play in...

JAMEER NELSON — The messed-up part is that Jameer may have missed his only opportunity to play in an ASG due to last season’s shoulder injury. His ‘09 nod was one of those "Your team was better than we thought/You should have X-number of All-Stars" situations; this time he’d have to put up even better numbers (16.7 ppg, 5.4 apg) to crack the roster. And with an ASG-minded group of Eastern Conference guards led by Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo and Gilbert Arenas on his heels, Jameer has a daunting uphill climb.

Austin Burton of Dime Magazine

Do you want to know what my pet peeve is? When a writer makes a claim and bases it on flawed reasoning, So, news flash: Jameer was NOT one of those "Your team was better than we thought/You should have X-number of All-Stars".

No, he wasn't. Nelson was an All-Star because his numbers matched up favorably to a bevy of upper-tier talent at the point guard position last year.

over 2 years ago erivera7 37 comments 0 recs |

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PER is the biggest measuring stick

Last season Jameer ranked 5th among point guards. 2nd in the East behind Nets’ speedster Devin Harris. Jameer Nelson should make the All-Star team assuming he doesn’t slip back to his old numbers and Rondo and Rose don’t play like they did in the 2009 Playoffs.

But keep in mind Jameer had a career year last season and it only lasted 42 games. Those shooting numbers are unlikely to stay so high and his efficiency may slip a tad. We don’t know whether it was a fluke year or not.

It's not a dunk unless your hand makes contact with the rim. Yeah, I'm talkin' to you, "Superman..."

by ben_gleicher on Oct 12, 2009 3:03 PM EDT reply actions

I have a question

Why would his shooting numbers slip? If he could do it for 42 games, why not 82? Why couldn’t he shoot that percentage for an entire year?

by magictitansfan on Oct 12, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

This

by pianolady on Oct 12, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Besides, it's not like he would forget how to do it all of a sudden!

And he almost exclusively worked on that part if his game, no doubt, considering he is coming back from a SHOULDER injury. His shooting shoulder, I might add. There’s nothing wrong with his legs, and he looks like Lou Ferrigno!!

by pianolady on Oct 12, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Makes no difference, the numbers aren't going to be duplicated.

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by erivera7 on Oct 12, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Because it's nearly impossible to sustain his eFG% and TS% as a perimeter shooter.

Classic regress to the mean, there’s just no way that Jameer will be able to duplicate the percentages he put up. They’re unsustainable, but at the same time, don’t expect too steep of a drop from Nelson.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 12, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Possible reasons I can think of off the top of my head

1. Regression to the mean. Yes, he could have suddenly become an incredibly good shooter. The odds aren’t great, and it’s more likely that he was having a fluke half-season.

2. He’s recovering from an injury to his shooting arm. That will throw things off.

3. He’ll be guarded more seriously now. Yeah, people talk big about covering everyone equally, but they don’t.

4. Fatigue. Sure, he did it for half a year. A whole year? That may be a different matter. The wear and tear of a full season grinds away at players.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Oct 12, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

It was a fluke year, in the sense that his efficiency was insane.

That being said, I don’t see why he can’t find a middle ground between his numbers from 2008 and 2009.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 12, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Those are all real good points

I just feel that hes done it once he can do it again. I don’t think its fair to call it a fluke year yet.

by magictitansfan on Oct 12, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

There’s regressing to the mean and theres a fluke year rule, and Jameer doesnt qualify for a Fluke year rule, so he may regress to the mean but he could deftly be the same level of efficiency

by derekk on Oct 12, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I didn't call his year a fluke, just the percentages.

They were above the norm, so to speak, so that’s why we all say it’s likely that he regresses back to the man, meaning, he regresses back to the numbers he’s historically has put up in his career.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 12, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Couldnt it be though..

That he has just gotten better? I don’t know maybe he will regress but i just believe, maybe hope, that he has raised his game to the next level and will continue to play like he did last year. If that makes sense.

by magictitansfan on Oct 12, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he's a much better shooter now than earlier in his career . . . just my belief though - we will see.

by CaliFlorida on Oct 12, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

He certainly is a better shooter, there's no doubt about that.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 12, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Even still, it's impossible for a perimeter player of any caliber to shoot that well.

This has nothing to do with Jameer, but more with what’s sustainable over a period of time.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 12, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Impossible is overstating it . . . 50/45 % has been done before . . . but it's very rare indeed

by CaliFlorida on Oct 12, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I meant impossible in sustaining those percentages for a long period of time.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 12, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Impossible over a career, yes (unless someone is the next Steve Kerr)

Over the course of a season, not impossible.

by CaliFlorida on Oct 12, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Long period of time = career.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 12, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions

What about Nash, CP3? There’s some select guards out there who can or closely can. Ray Allen another example.

by derekk on Oct 12, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Steve Nash is a good example.

His shooting percentages have been consistent over the years to what Jameer produced last year. He’s of the few. But Ray Allen is in the same boat as Nelson, shot insane percentages out of the norm for what he’s produced over the length of his career, so he’ll likely regress to the mean as well. I should restate myself to say it’s “nearly” impossible, there are certain players that can achieve those numbers over their respective careers.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 12, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions

HA!

Keep pumpin, ain't worried bout nuttin
Busters thought we was frontin, so reload and keep dumpin
Keep Sleeping on Orlando...

by BS Patrol on Oct 12, 2009 3:09 PM EDT reply actions

One thing that is true is that Jameer the competition in the East among PGs will make an all-star spot tough to come by.

There’s a good chance Jameer will need as good or better numbers from last year to get a spot.

by CaliFlorida on Oct 12, 2009 3:40 PM EDT reply actions

Personally, I'd rather have the Ring

by pianolady on Oct 12, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I think everybody would

by magictitansfan on Oct 12, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd rather get the extra All-Star nod

It's not a dunk unless your hand makes contact with the rim. Yeah, I'm talkin' to you, "Superman..."

by ben_gleicher on Oct 12, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Hah.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 13, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, the depth at the position is insane.

That shouldn’t be an indictment on Nelson and more a testament to the talent within the conference.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 12, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Really? Who?

I mean, you’ve got Derrick Rose, and Devin Harris, and… then what? Rondo’s good, but doesn’t put up huge stats… Personally, I’d take pre-injury Jameer over any of those guys.

If anything, I’d say the balance of power on PGs was in the West. I mean, obviously you’ve got Chris Paul and Tony Parker, and I don’t know if there’s an Eastern PG I could honestly take over Deron Williams or Steve Nash either.

Now, if you considered Dwyane Wade a point guard, then we’d have a case… but while Wade fulfills all the duties of a point guard, and is theoretically short enough to play point guard, he insists on doing all that from the SG position. (Because, you know, you have to make room in the starting lineup for Mario Chalmers.) It’s frustrating, really — he’s like the Tim Duncan of guards. Everyone KNOWS what he is, they just won’t call him that.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Oct 13, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Rondo’s solid, Calderon’s fairly good, and Rodney Stuckey’s a PG with good potential stuck on an awful team.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Oct 13, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Bleh, I doubt Stuckey will ever be an All-Star.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 13, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Rondo is an All-Star caliber point guard, ditto with Arenas, Harris, etc.

Maybe Rose, but it depends on how he develops in his second year in the NBA.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 13, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I'm not saying they're not good...

…I am saying none of them would make the team in the West. So it’s hard to say the East is a tough place to be an All-Star PG. (Especially after last year’s events.) It is, however, evidence that the point guard position in the NBA is as strong as it’s been in years.

And I either forgot about Arenas, assumed he was going to get injured (though I hope he recovers,) or thought of him as a SG. I can’t recall.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Oct 15, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Austin has a flawed assumption....

Gilbert Arenas will go down for the season 2 weeks in.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by MNeilson on Oct 12, 2009 4:48 PM EDT reply actions

If the Magic had a dude who made the All-Star team based on team success, it was Rashard Lewis.

Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation | Brandon Bass: "I just play hard."

by Evan Dunlap on Oct 13, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions

Right, but even then, one could make a pretty solid argument that Rashard deserved to be there.

Though I can certainly understand the sentiment for Lewis more so than Nelson.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 13, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I feel like Lewis was the league's leading three-point shooter...

…which, to me, automatically makes him a valid All-Star. When you’re clearly the best at one of the major things in the game of basketball, I say you’re a legitimate All-Star.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Oct 15, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions