Figuring Out the Orlando Magic's Rotation
by erivera7 on Oct 12, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
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PrintI know it's still relatively early in the pre-season and things can change in a heartbeat, but given Orlando Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy's comments to me at practice a few days ago about figuring out his rotation and when, I surmised it'd be a fun exercise for members in the community to figure out what their rotations would be if given the task of figuring out which players deserve to play the most.
A refresher:
When you have a full roster ready to go when Rashard Lewis gets back from suspension, how big will your rotation be?
I don't know. I just don't know. We'll see how everybody is playing. Eight, nine, or ten [players], I don't know. It certainly can't be more than ten and ten is a lot. Eight or nine? A back-up point, a back-up center, and two of those other guys at most and that's it. Probably. It'll be hard, we could go ten for a while I guess and just have a back-up at every spot but I don't know, we'll have to see how everybody is playing and what we think we're getting not only with our starting lineup but with our second unit. This group will be a little harder to figure out, as it has been in the past but all the options are good options so it's certainly not a complaint.
How do coaches figure that out? In terms of figuring out a rotation, is that based on personnel, talent, what?
Well, what we think will work. We'll obviously want to see much of them as we can in the pre-season and then you find things you like and don't like and how guys who fit together. I mean, I think there are some guys that maybe are very good players who work themselves more to say being go-to guys with the second unit than really guys who can fit in and be complimentary guys in the first unit so it's not just putting your five best players on the floor to start because I think with those first four guys (Nelson, Carter, Lewis, Howard), the guys I know I'm going to start when Rashard comes back, that fifth guy has got to be a guy that helps those four guys the most in some way and then we got to find a second unit where at least one of our main guys is still in it playing with them but a second unit that operates pretty well and find what they can do. That'll be more what we're trying to figure out probably in those last three exhibition games. Use these first five to sort out, come up with some possibilities, and then try to use the last three to try to narrow it down and get fixed on something.
The only "rule" is that the rotation can't have more than 10 people. Likewise, try to follow the rationale explained by Van Gundy at best as possible. So, have at it.
Make Van Gundy proud.
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Here you go Stan
Nelson (34) / Jason Williams (12)
Carter (34) / Pietrus (14)
Barnes (26) / Pietrus (12) / Lewis (10)
Lewis (24) / Bass (16) / Anderson (8)
Howard (36) / Gortat (12)
What do you think? Also, who do you think is going to win the backup PG battle? Williams or Johnson?
I like it, but I think
Bass will see more than 16 minutes a game.
by downbeatitude on Oct 12, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
He'll see a little bit more time but not that much.
Brandon averaged 20 minutes a night in Dallas and I think it’ll be the same in Orlando.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
It looks good
But that means we won’t be seeing Anderson too much and Redick is definitely out. The first one I regret the latter not so much.
Williams will probably win the back-up battle.
As for your rotation, looks good … just goes to show how difficult of a task it’ll be for Van Gundy to find minutes for Anderson. I think, out of everyone, Ryan is the one player that needs to see time, somehow.
What I suspect may happen is that Stan plays the matchups with Anderson (and maybe Bass).
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Post-suspension
The gimmes:
Jameer Nelson
Vince Carter
Rashard Lewis
Dwight Howard
The fifth starter:
Matt Barnes
The bench:
Jason Williams
JJ Redick
Mickael Pietrus
Brandon Bass
Marcin Gortat
Thoughts:
JWill and Dad might swap around a bit depending on how they actually perform during the season. I think JJ will be the backup 2 against slower teams, Peaches will be the backup 2 against teams with driving guards. Barnes, Peaches, and Lewis will split time at the 3. Lewis will start at the 4, but Bass will get significant time also. Gortat will back up Howard.
If we trade Gortat before the deadline, I’d expect to see Anderson move into the rotation at the 4, with Bass getting some time at the 5. Other than that, I think Ryan’s kind of an odd man out if SVG wants to have no more than a 10 man rotation.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
I'm just going to delete my post
since it mirrors yours quite a bit. However, I really see Reddick and Anderson both being odd men out barring injuries. Peaches will cover the 2 or 3 depending on the opposing team and their primary offensive threat, and should win 6th man of the year.
by downbeatitude on Oct 12, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I think both are odd men out, and Redick’s definitely Tenth Man on the list. I’m of the opinion, though, that a dedicated 2 guard (as opposed to Pietrus as a combo 2-3) is more likely to get playing time than a third 4. I’d like to see Anderson get playing time, but we’re really deep at the big spots.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
Not bad.
Yeah, Stan was staunch about having no more than 10 guys in the rotation.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Are you kidding.....
Anderson will see playing time. Maybe not alot, but some. Have you guys seen him play in the preseason? The kid can ball.
I'm not saying Ryan Anderson won't be playing during the regular season or anything, but . . .
I remember back in the day when Litterial Green averaged about 16 pts/gm during the preseason, but he still didn’t beat out Chris Corchiani to back up Scott Skiles. Really, I’m just saying (which has been repeated ad nauseum by everybody else) that this is just the preseason and doesn’t mean much in the scheme of things. New guys play their butts off to try to make the team or get added to the rotation, and the established guys play at 60-75% to avoid injuries.
Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek
by funny80sguy on Oct 12, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Bass is new also...
It's not a dunk unless your hand makes contact with the rim. Yeah, I'm talkin' to you, "Superman..."
by ben_gleicher on Oct 12, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Bass is a fifth-year veteran
Anderson’s second-year. Sure, Ryan’s started more games (33 to 5), but as far as NBA experience goes, Bass has been around the league much longer.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
New to the Magic, sorry for the confusion
It's not a dunk unless your hand makes contact with the rim. Yeah, I'm talkin' to you, "Superman..."
by ben_gleicher on Oct 12, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Thing is, Anderson has proven that he can play already.
Ryan started 33 games for the New Jersey Nets last season, so this isn’t some fluke performance.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I look at it like this:
Howard/Gortat
Nelson/Williams/Dad
Carter/Peaches/Redick
Lewis/Anderson/Barnes
Bass/Lewis (interchangable at both spots)
Hey what a minute….we dont look so deep on paper. Did I get this wrong?
"My features are that of a god, its not a facade these rappers wanna be NaS"- Nasir Jones QB's Finest
Founder and only member of the Kristin Kreuk Appreciation Society, and future Husband
Still miss em: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvvgVn0gg1E
Barnes at the 4 is gutsy
But I like that in smaller lineups, Barnesy may be a nice up-tempo counter against a slower-4
Good Guys Don't use the reply button
by stanleygoober on Oct 12, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't like Lewis starting at small forward, unfortunately.
I definitely do think he should see minutes there because he will have his way on offense, but defense is a major concern. I know he’ll improve as he gets re-acclimated to playing the position, but his faults as a defender at SF aren’t completely fixable (though he can get better with improved positioning, etc).
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Listy-list
Nelson (40), Williams (8)
VC (26), Pietrus (22),
Barnes (28),VC (12), Shard (8)
Shard (28), Bass (14), Anderson (6)
Dwight (36), Gortat (12)
(These minutes are set if only 10 players will be getting them)
- I believe that regardless of rotation, Nelson is too valuable in each to leave out for long periods of time. J-Will hasn’t looked bad so far but will not be able to replace Nelson’s value.
- Ice-0 will see some extra PT so Stan can use Ryan Anderson, IMO, primarily in a mix with Bass with different situations.
- Despite the “twin towers” everyone wants to happen, Dwight will rack up the fouls (especially if the preseason is any indicator) and Scoretat/Boardtat will not be as efficient at the 4 and holds more value (non-monetary) at the 5. Don’t really see Bass playing the 5 unless its an injury to either Dwight or Marcin.
Good Guys Don't use the reply button
*Ice-0 will see some extra PT at the 3
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by stanleygoober on Oct 12, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
40 minutes is too much for Nelson, he won't see that many minutes.
I think 30-35 is a better range to look at.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
No way.....
Nelson will not see 40 min….. hopefully around 30-32 min at the most.
Hopefully in between
Unless Jason Williams time travels back to 2003, I don’t want to see him for 18mpg. Short bursts would be best. Nelson gives them unparalleled production, he should see a little more court time than in the past.
It's not a dunk unless your hand makes contact with the rim. Yeah, I'm talkin' to you, "Superman..."
by ben_gleicher on Oct 12, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Jameer gives them unparalleled production because he plays at pretty much the highest energy level out there and Id rather have 30-32 mpg of high energy Jameer than complacent or tired 40mpg Jameer. I have faith in White Chocolate and Dad to take care of 16-18 mpg well and hopefully Jason surprises us with his production. Also wish CJ Watson deal went thru..
Nelson averaged 31.2 minutes this past season, he should see (at the most) 35 minutes this year.
As for J-Will, remember that Dad is still around so Stan can play the hot hand if/when he needs to.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Off Day?
Excuse me, but if I’m not mistaken you’ve got Grizzlies on your hands tonight.
Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist
I think its because in the FL, alot of us get off work for Columbus Day
well, at least banks do
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by stanleygoober on Oct 12, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
lol not chase in lake Oswego!
Keep pumpin, ain't worried bout nuttin
Busters thought we was frontin, so reload and keep dumpin
Keep Sleeping on Orlando...
My mistake, sorry about that.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I went to get cash assuming The bank was closed
It was Open, I went in and everyone there looked like they were just told they had 8 hours to live.
Keep pumpin, ain't worried bout nuttin
Busters thought we was frontin, so reload and keep dumpin
Keep Sleeping on Orlando...
Yeah, off day sounds about right...LOL
Jus teasing
I see Vince and Rashard getting between 36 and 39 mpg
They’ll play the most. Dwight and Jameer 34-37mpg.
48 – Howard = Marcin’s minutes.
Other than that we have no clue what Stan is going to do with lineups, there’s too much flexibility to speculate who plays at which position. And it’s especially hard when you have guys like Ryan Anderson and Matt Barnes who can come in and play “forward” with Rashard Lewis. Ryan couldn’t guard the quick 3’s but other than that they can move interchangeably. Too hard to say who plays where and how long.
It's not a dunk unless your hand makes contact with the rim. Yeah, I'm talkin' to you, "Superman..."
Talk about a good problem to have!
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Lineup:
PG- Jameer (32) – Williams (16)
*SVG will rotate AJ in there on matchups and so he doesn’t stay cold atleast. Carter playing alil PG here and there helping Meer or giving the Magic a different look could happen once inawhile.
SG- Carter (34) – Pietrus (8) – Redick (6)
*I can’t figure this one out because if SVG wants defense, he needs Pietrus but he’s showing me that Redick is it. His defense is OK now and he plays offense well in the system, but I suspect Pietrus will have a good or major amount of backup min.s here soon. Redick shouldn’t go cold tho, there’ll be some good matchups.
SF- Barnes (24) – Pietrus (14) – Lewis (10)
*Barnes fits best with starters it seems. Pietrus should have more min.s but if he gets good min.s behind Carter also, than it can give Lewis more min.s at SF. Lewis will need to improve more defensively from this spot.
PF- Lewis (24) – Bass/Ryan** (24)
*According to matchups, Lewis may play less SF and more PF, and Bass less overall OR Lewis plays same min.s at SF/PF and Anderson plays all of Bass’ minutes, and to also simply keep Anderson from being cold.
But the typical Magic style with Lewis at PF is there, and Bass has seemingly taken Battie’s role behind and excelled in every aspect to get a healthy 24mpg and give the Magic a tougher, more conventional look and two confounding styles for every game opponent to contend with. There’s a chance Bass may start some certain games too and if he eats more minutes from Lewis at PF, then Lewis at SF will eat more minutes from Barnes/Pietrus/Redick to keep his 34mpg.
C- Dwight (35) – Gortat (13)
*Twin tower looks will be used very little again this season, and for mainly defensive reasons. Gortat is not a PF.
That’s the best 10 man rotation, with 4 starters (Jameer, Carter, Lewis, Dwight) playing starter level minutes, with 2 fringe spots (Gortat will play 13mpg~, Redick’s time may likely dwindle/gone), with 3 important rotation jobs of about 24mpg (Barnes, Pietrus, Bass/Ryan**).
**My only qualm is Ryan Anderson not playing which means SVG will have to play him little, forget about it, move on, trade him while he’s hot, etc. OR give 12mpg to Bass and Ryan when it’s all said and done, but not by 12mpg for both every game, but both nearly taking equal games in the season as the full time backup PF while the other sits that game as the matchups dictate.
Ryan does little that Lewis can’t tho.. so my preference is that Bass pretty much gets every game at 24~mpg so the Magic are just as scary a traditional team too.
Best Line-up: Barnes Starts
I think this is our core:
1. Nelson/Williams & AJ
2. Carter/Pietrus/Barnes
3. Barnes/Lewis/Pietrus/Carter
4. Lewis/Bass
5. Howard/Gortat/Bass
An 8.5 man rotation is best, but we’ll see 9.5.
The four all-stars will start. (4)
Gortat backs up Howard, barring funky matchups. (1)
Barnes and Bass are the best of the newbies. (2)
Barnes will see the most starts of the two players, and most of his minutes will come at the 3. Some games Bass will start at the 4 with Lewis at the 3; some games Barnes will start at the 3 with Lewis at the 4. I can see Bass getting spot minutes at the five.
I actually think the logjam will be at the three. I don’t see Anderson competing to start at the four. I think it’s Bass or Lewis depending on matchups, and I still think Lewis gets most of the minutes.
Pietrus is our sixth man. (1)
I think Jason Williams will back up Jameer but his play will be inconsistent. He’ll platoon with AJ (1)
JJ/Anderson will see spot minutes at the 2 and the 4, respectively. JJ’s ceiling is looking like Jason Kapono or Daequan Cook. Anderson has talent, but I don’t see any room for him this year. He’s being groomed for the future. Could we see any Ryan Anderson at the five with Bass at the 4? (.5)
So: 4+1+2+1+1+.5 = 9.5
This is tough. Stan has a ton of options.
Great breakdown. I think it's obvious everyone is in agreement Barnes SHOULD start at the 3.
Welcome to 3QC, btw!
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
My main reason for wanting Barnes to start at the 3 is depth. Looking at the positions:
2: VC, JJ, Peaches
3: Barnes, Peaches, Lewis, VC
4: Lewis, Barnes, Bass, Anderson, Gortat (in Twin Towers mode)
At SG, VC’s obviously the best choice. JJ and Peaches are both roughly average players.
At the 4, we have a plethora of players, with Lewis, Bass, and Anderson all fitting better into the position than Barnes in most situations. Due to Lewis’ skill, experience, range, and proven ability to mesh with SVG’s system, he gets the nod.
This leaves us with Barnes and Pietrus at the 3. Both play SF, which is a wash. Pietrus also backs up a thin position (SG, with only VC and JJ) while Barnes backs up a heavy position (PF, with Lewis, Bass, Anderson, and Gortat). Thus, having Barnes at the 3 restricts options less than Pietrus at the 3.
I also think Peaches is better off the bench than starting (similar to Ginobili in that he’s a Sixth Man even if he’s talented), which was a factor in coming up with my line-up.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
Starting Barnes at the three makes the most sense, rotation-wise, I would agree.
.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Thanks E 7
I joined your ranks a few months ago but have had trouble leaving comments the last few weeks.
Curious what you think of playing Anderson at the 5 some and giving us a Mehmet Okur-type. Has he ever played any 5?
People are talking a lot about doing some small ball with Bass at the 5 and Barnes at the 4. I’m wondering about occasionally going small with Bass at the 4 and Anderson at the 5. Do you see any situations where that could work? Then we’d have a small lineup with a “stretch 5” and a 4 with a nice mid-range game. We could play the 4-in-one-out with the PF in and the C out. This could create some sick pick-n-roll/pick-n-pop situations with Vince or Barnes doing Hedo’s old thing. If Anderson can’t guard centers, they could switch on defense with Anderson at the 4 and Bass at the 5.
Could be an interesting look to throw at some teams.
Anderson will definitely see a lot of playing time during the first 10 games, but it’ll be harder to come by later because Lewis and Bass crowd him out. He’d see more minutes if we could get him some garbage time at the pivot.
by Hoop Dreams on Oct 13, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Anderson played about 5% of New Jersey’s minutes at the 5 last season, with Sean Williams at the 4 and Jarvis Hayes at the 3. His eFG% increases, but so does his foul rate. Due to being too light, he’s defensively inefficient at the 5, so even though his PER increases, his PER differential declines. Barnes-Anderson-Bass would be a better set than Barnes-Bass-Anderson.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
I see your point and I agree...
You’re saying line them up differently on the offensive end, and leave Bass @ the 5 defensively b/c he can guard them w/no probs. I see doing the same thing with Lewis/Barnes…allowing ewis to play @ the 3 on offense where he has the most mismatches, and @ the 4 on defense, putting Barnes on the 3. That’s a nightmare waiting to happen…LOL
I don't think Anderson is capable of playing at center.
The main thing is that he lacks strength at the position, something that Brandon Bass has, which in turn allows him to play the 5 with effectiveness even though he’s a little undersized (he makes up for it with his wingspan). At this point in his career, I think Ryan is strictly a 4.
As for the small ball idea, Stan Van Gundy actually played Anderson and Bass together against the Houston Rockets for a couple minutes at a time. Technically, Ryan was the 4 and Brandon was the 5 but the same principles applied, the Orlando Magic were able to play 4-out/1-in because of Anderson’s ability to spread the floor at power forward.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Love the 4-in-1-out Options
Wow, you guys are great with the supporting data (big up to The Dark).
My favorite thing about the Anderson and Bass pickups is the flexibility they give us. Our frontcourt now has two units that can play a variety of permutations of 4-in-1-out.
E: You’re making my point more clearly than I did. I was wondering how much we could see Bass & Anderson on the floor together. In theory they seem to compliment each other, regardless of who is technically playing the 4 and who is technically playing the 5.
by Hoop Dreams on Oct 14, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, the idea of labeling a position for the players is irrelevant.
What matters is that they’re on the court.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Okay, here goes, starters in BOLD...str8 from NBA 2K...LOL
PG – Nelson (33)/J-Will (15)
SG – VC (32)/Peaches (16)
SF – Barnes (24)/Lewis (16)/Peaches (8)
PF – Lewis (20)/Bass (16)/Ryan (12)
C – Howard (34)/Gortat (14)
Of course:
1) I don’t think SVG will play 2 backup PG’s each night. He’ll play one or the other.
2) I think SVG will closely monitor Vince’s mins in order to preserve him for the playoffs
3) I think Pietrus and Barnes’ mins will be almost identical.
4) Bass will see mins @ C if matchups permit, or if Dwight is in serious foul trouble. Gortat is too good to sit, so Bass’ mins will come primarily @ PF.
5) Because of offensive mis-matches, Lewis will see more time @ SF than Peaches.
6) We all know that Vince will operate the point on occasion, but my mins are based on defensive matchup, not offensive. J.J. will not be in there guarding PG’s!
This lineup is not my preferred lineup. It’s the one that is most likely to happen! MY rotation would be…on paper, of course:
PG – Nelson (33)/J-Will (15)
SG – VC (34)/Peaches (14)
SF – Lewis (22)/Barnes (20)/Peaches (6)
PF – Ryan (16)/Lewis (12)/Bass (20)
C – Howard (36)/Gortat (12)
- I would start Lewis @ SF and Ryan @ PF in order to keep the floor spread 1-in/4-out. Ryan is also a great offensive rebounder. That lineup could jump on a team early and give us early leads. I would sub in Barnes @ SF like halfway thru the 1st quarter and move Lewis to PF. This is sort of how we used Peaches last year with Hedo. We subbed Hedo out early so he could come in when Rashard and Jameer went out.
- Since J-Will is accustomed to playing starter’s mins, I would want to string his mins together and give him two stretches rather than several small stints on the floor. I’d play Jameer the entire 1st quarter, or at least 10 mins straight. Then I’d play J-will 8-9 mins straight in the 2nd, bringing Nelson back in to close out the half. I would start the 3rd quarter w/Nelson, but sub J-will back in like halfway thru so as to preserve him for the 4th. So Jameer’s mins by quarter: Q1=12/Q2=3/Q3=8/Q4=10
I can dream, can’t I??
Great points. Lewis and Ryan can work but I need to see if they can play defense in those two F spots because statiscally, Lewis is an above average defender at PF, not SF, and Barnes/Pietrus are elite wing defenders imo, particularly Pietrus. But offensively, we’d keep two 6’10 F’s with high 3pt accuracy and Lewis would be a SF who can excel in post ups.
Yeah, the issue with the Lewis/Anderson combination is defense.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Definitely understand the points about defense...
But against smaller teams, we could get multiple players in foul trouble early in the game by having to try and defend either one of these guys along w/Dwight. I think it would certainly be cool to see that lineup against a team like the Raptors! Ahh…I can dream for sure…LOL
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