The Magical Four Factors
With a new week, comes a new showcased fanpost. This time from Eyriq the Red, who provides an assessment of the Magic after the first 32 games. Check it out. - ER
As Ben Q. Rock notes in his post game recaps, Four Factors have been shown to stand above the rest in terms of leading a team to victory, or defeat. These are Effective Field Goal Percentage, Free Throws/Field Goals, Offensive Rebounding, and Turnover Rate. So, how do the Magic look after 32 games? Which Factor are we strongest in? Weakest? Let's take a look.
What I did was look back through all our games so far and I recorded how many games we beat the other team in a particular category. So for eFG we are 26-6, or in other words 26 times we had the higher eFG% against our opponent. I also noted how we rank compared to the rest of the association. Below is a table showing the results.
[editor's note: Click after the jump to see the stats.]
|
eFG 4th |
FT/FG 15th |
OREB% 27th |
TOr 16th |
|
26-6 (.813) |
19-13 (.594) |
11-21 (.344) |
15-12-5 (.469) |
Our strongest Factor was by far eFG. We consistently hold our opponents to a lower eFG%, as our 26-6 record in that category shows, which isn't hard considering we have the 4th best eFG% in the league. But what we do on offense is only part of the story; we should also note that we have the best eFG% defense in the league.
OREB% is our weakest Factor. We win this Factor only 34% of the time, and are 27th overall in the league. We were 27th last year as well, though our overall OREB% is slightly better this year. Dwight is improved in this regard and having Battie playing helps as well. Our best offensive rebounder though, statistically, is Gortat, so getting him more playing time could help with this Factor even more.
The relation of the Magic's performance in each Factor and it's relation to our real Wins and Losses should also provide us with some insightful information. The table below shows the number of times we were outperformed in each category during our 7 losing contests this season.
|
eFG |
FT/FG |
OREB% |
TOr |
|
4 (.667) |
4 (.308) |
5 (.238) |
3 (.250) |
We have only lost the battle of eFG% in 6 contests this year, but a whopping 4 of those contests turned into losing games. For the Magic, this is by far the most telling Factor in our wins and losses. If we are losing the FG% battle you can bet we are going to lose the game.
Surprisingly, or maybe not so surprisingly considering we are winning so many games, OREB% has little relation to whether we win or lose a game. Yes we get beat in the category but apparently we keep it close enough so as to do little harm to the overall outcome.
The same is true in the Turn-Over department. We are just good enough to break even against our opponents and very rarely do we lose games because of TOV's.
FT/FG is a little more impactful on whether or not we are going to win or lose a game. This is because we typically do such a good job of getting to the line more than we send our opponent there. It is still not hugely important though as only 31% of losses in this category turn into losing efforts for the team. I think not relying on this category is part of the secret behind our Road success, as home teams can at times get the benefit of the whistle. Though getting killed in this Factor against Detroit coupled with porous shooting did kill our chances in that game.
Some final thoughts:
- The Magic are elite because of one thing, their ability to make shots and keep the other team from doing so. A big part of the separation that exists between the Magic and their opponents is due to the 3pt shot. When this shot is falling the Magic are practically unbeatable.
- If the Magic are getting out gunned from the field it is pretty much game over. The two games we won while at the same time getting beat on FG% were against Dallas and Chicago. In both we went to the Stripe at a much greater clip. Being a poor FT shooting team often times cancels out this advantage, and both these game went down to the wire. Also interesting is that we had the advantage in OREB against Chicago and TOV advantage against Dallas. This doesn't happen often enough to be considered a safety net though.
- Pietrus is our best OREB outside of our bigs, so having him out hurts us in that area. And no, Lewis is not one of our "bigs" when we talk about OREB, lol.
- Gortat should really be worked in more with Dwight on the floor. It would do wonders for our OREB. What I don't know is how it would affect our eFG%, which is really our calling card and not to be sacrificed if we know what's good for us.
All in all this is a Magic team that is dominating the league right now and looking very tough to stop. They are getting it together offensively and I won't be surprised to see us climb even higher in eFG% before the year is done. The same actually goes for our OREB% and TOr. I honestly think this team is just as good as the Bostons, Clevelands, and L.A.s of the world, which has to scare the bejesus out of other teams. I mean, besides the Lakers we have the largest window for winning a title... or 4.... of any of them.
This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.
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Comments
Excellent post
.. well done. I already see the Magic as Title contenders, but for those that doubt, this is another good post as to why that’s the case.
I think the fact you point out that Orlando has the best eFG% in the league directly correlates to why the Magic currently possess the third most efficient defense in the league, which will help come playoff time. Orlando’s defense is vastly superior to last year’s squad ..
Also, I agree that Gortat should see more playing time. As I alluded in my Joe Smith post, Gortat has proven to be a productive player who SHOULD see more PT. Now obviously .. we don’t know how productive Gortat will become with additional minutes but he should be still be a useful player (worst-case scenario). I don’t think he’d hurt the Magic’s eFG% because most of his buckets come in the paint .. he’d definitely help the OReb%, as you mentioned, in any case. I think Gortat would bring more plusses than minuses.
Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
Thanks
It is pretty amazing how well Stan’s system is working. It maximizes so many of the Magic’s natural strengths that he deserves a ton of credit. Brilliant coaching.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
by Eyriq the Red on Jan 2, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah .. Stan's the man.
The one thing I find remarkable is how well the Magic play team defense. Individually, the players aren’t great on-ball defenders, with a few exceptions, yet as a unit, they ARE great. They buy into SVG’s system and it works.
Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
This has probably been said or thought of many times over, but . . .
Can you imagine the years of mediocrity the Magic would probably be in right now if Billy Donovan hadn’t flaked out on the Magic or if Stan had gone to the Kings?
Scary thought.
For once, fate was kind to the Magic .. given the string of bad luck the franchise has had up to that point (at the time of Donovan’s signing/resigning). I shudder at what the alternative would be like.
Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
To show how accurate this is
look at the Raptor game. We got beat out in our FG%, and we couldn’t make up for it at the line. And we barely played Gortat at all. Someone show this post to Van Gundy! hahaha
This analysis is especially relevant after the loss to Toronto
I have no idea how the Magic managed to lose despite being +36 on three-pointers. That the Raptors managed to match the Magic in eFG% just shows how awful the Magic’s interior defense was.
Good analysis
The Magic’s focus on D seems to be taking away the inside game and penetration, and dare the opponent to outshoot them from the outside. Works wonders on most nights, but it all comes down to two things:
1. the Magic has a collectively bad shooting night.
2. the other team has great or hot shooters.
if one of the two is true then all bets are off, if both then Magic probably get blown away. Good thing is that 1. doesn’t happen very often, so the Magic is gonna be in it most games.
Even if the Magic were to shoot poorly, they play excellent defense.
.. so the damaging effect could be minimal, at best. The Heat game just a few days ago is a perfect example. The Magic were terrible offensively but played superb defensively (especially in the 4th quarter) and came away with the victory.
Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
I agee,
even if the shots aren’t falling for the Magic, they can still dump the ball down low to Howard, not many teams have that kind of luxury, and Magic protects the paint very well. So yeah, even though I said all bets are off, it still kilnda tilts toward Magic.
Howard is key
It is easy to look at the Magic’s style and yell “that is not playoff basketball”, and with most NBA teams personnel that would be true. The beauty of it is that we have Howard, an uber efficient big man that can dominate in the half court game. And he is only getting better.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
by Eyriq the Red on Jan 6, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions

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