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John Hollinger's Orlando Magic Forecast: Surprisingly Pessimistic

An article as expansive as John Hollinger's Orlando Magic Team Forecast for ESPN deserves more than a FanShot, I believe, which is why I'm linking to it in a "normal" post.

Hollinger reviews the Magic's 2007/2008 season using some statistical analysis. When I talk about the Magic possibly contending for a title, people may look at me weirdly, but that's because they don't know, as Hollinger points out, the point-differential story:

They had the point differential of a 58-win team, and their 6.1-win differential between real wins and expected wins was the league's third-largest. It didn't help them any last year, but it's a good omen going forward, as it means the team was really better than its record.

But that's essentially where the optimism ends. Hollinger believes that the Magic aren't any better off now than they were a year ago "because Orlando's bench is (de)composed almost entirely of replacement-level players," citing Keith Bogans as the only man who might exceed that level of production.

He also cites health as a huge reason for the Magic's success in 2007/2008, and thinks the injury bug will bite this year:

Other than losing bit player [Tony] Battie, Orlando glided through last season with nary a splinter; the one minor injury they had was to point guard [Jameer] Nelson, and that was the one position where they had plenty of backup. The Magic are unlikely to have such good fortune for a second consecutive season, and that has to be taken into account.

The first part of that claim is irrefutable: the Magic were remarkably healthy last season. But the second part is largely speculative. Nowhere is it written that a team cannot enjoy reasonably good health for two consecutive seasons. It's a bit like the tired argument that the Detroit Pistons are bound to get worse because they're getting old.

Hollinger concludes by writing that the Magic will win the Southeast Division "by default" and may be the only team in the division to finish with a plus-.500 record. Specifically, he predicts the Magic will post a 46-36 record and finish in fourth-place in the Eastern Conference, behind Boston (60-22), Detroit (54-38), and Philadelphia (50-32). In that respect, he agrees with 3QC readers who voted the 76ers as the Eastern team most likely to leapfrog Orlando in the standings. However, he predicts Toronto and Cleveland will finish with better records (each 47-35) than the Magic, but will place in a tie for fifth due to the league rule which says division champions cannot be seeded lower than fourth in the playoffs.

What does the 3QC community think of Hollinger's outlook? Will a lack of depth sink the Magic? What of injuries? Or will growth from Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson, as well as steady production from Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, be enough to keep them afloat or, even better, propel them higher in the conference ranks?

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments

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Injury? Really?

Injury? I’m surprised that is what he comes with.

As for the bench being downgraded, I think he is completely wrong about that too. Battie and Gortat already make the bench better, not to mention Cook reportedly is looking in tip top shape and Redick may finally be ready to step up. It’s about how the minutes are filled and more of Nelson > than Dooling/Arroyo.

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Sep 30, 2008 10:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I guess he doesn't like Cook that much

Or Battie, for that matter. Cook was relatively great for a while, but he fell to earth about a month or so before his injury and it really derailed his season. I don’t know how productive Tony will be, but at least he gives the Magic the ability to run with two true bigs (as opposed to Dwight and two SFs, or Foyle/Cook/Turkoglu).

I am worried about the point, though. If Jameer goes through one of his funks, it means more minutes for Anthony Johnson, who ideally wouldn’t play more than 15 minutes a game.

The bench is bad, but it’s probably a step up from last year.

by Ben Q Rock on Sep 30, 2008 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I stopped taking his opinion seriously a while ago. Remember, this is the same dude who said Yao Ming would be the best player in the league this past season.

Hollinger is a joke, enough said.

by magic fanatic on Oct 1, 2008 1:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I share his lack of confidence, though for different reasons. I just don’t see the upside – I don’t think Nelson’s any more than a decent backup, and Howard’s shown no inclination to improve his offensive game around the basket or work on his free throws. I don’t think Turk will be better than last season and I expect about the same from Lewis.

I don’t think we’ve improved at all. I don’t think we’re tough enough, I don’t think we defend enough and I don’t think we’re going to look after the ball. Soft play, soft defence and turnovers = another good, but not great season.

by eltharion_doa on Oct 1, 2008 6:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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