Rumor: Could Corey Maggette Come Back to Orlando?

by Evan Dunlap on Mar 18, 2008 2:33 PM EDT in Rumors

Corey Maggette of the Orlando Magic dunks the basketball in an NBA game against the San Antonio Spurs

Corey Maggette spent his rookie season in Magic blue, but could return to Orlando as a free-agent this summer.
File photo by Eric Gay, the Associated Press

In his NBA Confidential piece in today's Orlando Sentinel, Tim Povtak mentions two possible free-agent acquisitions for the Magic this summer: Jason Williams and Corey Maggette:

Point guard Jason Williams of the Miami Heat isn't the only one who will go into free agency this summer hoping the Orlando Magic will give him a call. With the Magic having so many guards in the final year of their contracts -- and with center Dwight Howard locked in for many years -- there are players all over the league hoping for a ride to Orlando.

Shooting guard Corey Maggette of the Los Angeles Clippers will be another one looking to see what the Magic will do, which is why he smiled last week when he was asked about opting out of the final year of his contract to become a free agent this summer [....]

"We'll sit down this summer and see where it goes," Maggette said before the Clippers were pounded by the Magic last week [....]

I have no interest in Jason Williams at all -- seriously, if we want to have a pass-first point guard around to back-up Jameer Nelson, we'd be better off re-signing Carlos Arroyo -- but Maggette is an interesting proposition. So interesting, in fact, that discussing his potential signing merits its own discussion.

Consider these positives: Maggette is averaging career-highs in scoring (22.4 points per game), field goal percentage (.470), and three-point percentage (.413). Additionally, he's fourth in the league this season in free throw attempts per game, and he converts on a solid 84% of them. Adding him to a starting lineup that already features Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu, and Rashard Lewis along the perimeter -- not to mention Dwight Howard down low -- would make the Magic formidable indeed. Furthermore, Nelson, Maggette, and Turkoglu can all handle the ball well, meaning they aren't just going to stand around on the perimeter and launch threes. This year's Magic team is fourth in the league in offensive efficiency, and it's not a stretch to think that standing would surge to first with Maggette in the starting lineup.

There are a few downsides to Maggette, however. For one, he likes to dominate the ball: when he's on the floor, he uses 27% of the Clippers' possessions. Of course, if he's willing to sacrifice " million in guaranteed money next season to play for us, as Povtak suspects he might, I'm sure he'd be willing to share the ball. Second, he's a poor defender. He allows opposing small forwards to post a PER of 18.4 against him. For comparison's sake, note that Dallas forward Josh Howard's PER this season is 18.2. Understandably, I'm a bit leery of signing a guy who lets his man post borderline All-Star numbers. Finally, he's far from a beast on the offensive boards. The player he'd replace in the starting lineup, Maurice Evans, grabs 7.2% of the Magic's missed shots when he's on the floor. Maggette grabs just 3.6% of the Clippers' misses. Don't be fooled by Maggette's higher overall rebound rate: the Magic are 26th in the league in offensive rebound rate and third in defensive rebounding, and Evans is the better offensive rebounder. We could also retain Evans more cheaply than we could obtain Maggette. Even if Evans wants a raise this summer -- and he's earned it, by all accounts -- he'd still only command $2.5 million or so. Maggette would cost us the whole $5.5 million mid-level exception, and he'd be on our books for five seasons.

So, should the Magic make a run at Maggette to improve their already elite-level offense? Or should they look elsewhere, hoping to shore-up their 11th-ranked defense and save money? I'm still undecided. On the one hand, I like the idea of having yet another offensive threat, especially one whose presence could -- gulp! -- allow us to trade Hedo Turkoglu, whose value has never been higher, for help at the power positions. On the other hand, there's no reason to tinker with what's already a fantastic offense, especially not when the defense needs attending to.

Corey Maggette and Maurice Evans statistics from www.basketball-reference.com.

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Corey to Orlando!

Comparing him to Evans is laughable, though you did a good job with what you had.

For one thing Evans performs barely above the league average in PER at around 15.4 where Corey is at around 20+. Huge difference, one is an average starter compared to a border line all-star.

As for defense, Corey also beat out Evans there too, and quite significantly I might add.

Then to finish the comparison off Corey shows to be a much better rebounder overall, not to mention ball distributor, ect. This is all coming from the 82 Games web page.

To summarize, getting Corey would be an upgrade of earth shaking proportions and instantly vault this team to elite status regardless of what they do this post season. It improves both the offense and defense (I think), and for the MLE is a steal like the league rarely sees.

by Eyriq the Red on Mar 18, 2008 4:21 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Corey to Orlando

I still don't think Maggette is the kind of rebounder we need -- he's not going to get putbacks like Evans does -- but you make some great points. I had no idea that Evans' PER allowed was 19, which is Andre Iguodala territory. Interesting, indeed.

by Evan Dunlap on Mar 18, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Re: Corey to Orlando

It does seem that Evans is more active on the offensive boards, but one contributor to that may be the usage of each player on offensive sets. Evans obviously is an after thought for us where as Maggette is currently their #1 option and at most other times their #2 option. So in other words Evans is freer to get to the glass where as Maggette is taking the shots. This is purely speculation but I feel intuitively it makes sense and would explain for the differences in offensive rebounding. It also means that Maggette would not be a drop off in that category as we might assume just looking at the raw data.

by Eyriq the Red on Mar 18, 2008 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Would be a great pickup

Some of those numbers you've posted can be better explained by subjective analysis. His usage rate is high, but his team doesn't have many weapons. If you are looking at that, you should see if there has been a significant increase in his usage rate as compared to when Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston were healthy and playing. Asking my west coast friends, who are warriors fans but see clipper games more often than us, it seems he's been more offensive focused this season because of the problems with the team. He can be a better defender when he doesn't have to contribute as much offensively.

By the way, they also tell me that Rashard can be used much better by us. They think posting him up in the 4th quarter is a good option because he's actually very good in the post, and it allows Dwight to crash the offensive boards. He's also a great foul shooter so they can't foul him if he's got it going.

Anyways, I think Maggette would be a great pickup for the team. You can always have a defensive stopper come in situationally. If he's willing to take a pay cut to come here... well that's a huge sign for the way our organization is growing.

-D

by swamidigital on Mar 18, 2008 8:53 PM EDT reply actions

82 games analysis

That site is great. After looking at our individual players I noticed some trends. Dooling plays great D against opposing 1's, though not so much against opposing 2's. That would shoot down the myth him being an effective combo guard. Bogans and Evans are horrible defenders (what?). Also, outside of Lewis getting out rebounded by opposing 4's, he consistently out plays them in all the other categories, including playing solid defense. So in reality having him at the 4 is a strength, not a weakness. It also confirms that Nelson needs to work on his defense...Go figure.

by Eyriq the Red on Mar 19, 2008 11:03 AM EDT reply actions

Re: 82 games analysis

Yeah, I love 82games. It's pretty rad. I think it's way off on Bogans and Evans being poor defenders. Usually they're very good; it's the point guards who have gone nuts on us this year (Lou Williams, Andre Miller, Jason Williams, Anthony Carter, Darrell Armstrong...)

by Evan Dunlap on Mar 19, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions