Orlando Pinstriped Post: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Once A Metro covering Red Bull New York!

Jameer Nelson: Off-The-Dribble Assassin

Editor's note: this post was written before tip-off of last night's Orlando Magic/Detroit Pistons game - BQR

I'll cop to being one of the blogosphere's preeminent Jameer Nelson supporters. That much isn't lost on me. And this site has delivered a ton of Jameer Nelson content lately. By now, you don't need me to remind you of how good he's been this season. But I'm going to do it again anyway, briefly, and possibly for the last time, because I don't enjoy beating dead horses. (Although this particular dead horse is pretty damn fun to beat.)

(Only kidding, PETA. Only kidding.)

For some context, here's an eye-popping stat from Bradford Doolittle of Basketball Prospectus:

On a per-minute basis, Jameer Nelson (15.8 WP3K) has not only been the Magic's best player, he has been the second-best player in the NBA. His 59.7% eFG ranks sixth in the league. No player has been as hot from the outside as Nelson, and he is also doing a much better job of getting to the basket. If starting All-Star berths were handed out for all five actual positions and were determined by merit rather than popularity, there would be a terrific battle between Nelson and Rajon Rondo to be the East's starting point guard in Phoenix.

Indeed, Nelson has sizzled from the field this season, in large part due to his ability to create for himself off the dribble. He has three major weapons: the mid-range jumper, the drive to the basket, and the three-point jumper. With the help of 82games.com, we'll explain just how lethal he is with any of the three options. Make the jump to read the full story.

Star-divide

He does most of his damage with the mid-range jump shot, which he gets courtesy of Dwight Howard's solid screens. Opponents still go under that screen and dare Nelson to shoot, but that's become a simply awful strategy this season. As of December 27th, Nelson led all NBA players in FG% on two-point jumpers, nailing 55% of them. The next closest player was Ray Allen at 52.6%. More notable than Nelson's percentage is how infrequently he needs anyone else to create for him. Nelson is assisted on only 9% of his two-point jumpers, which makes a ton of sense given the nature of the Magic's offense. He comes off a screen, sees that the defense is conceding the shot to him, and pulls up. And, more often than not, he connects.

If the jumper isn't there, no, problem: Nelson has above-average quickness. Okay, no one's going to confuse him for Leandro Barbosa, but he's quick nonetheless. And when he needs to, Nelson uses that quickness to get to the basket. Only 24% of his attempts come from that distance, but that's okay; he needs to take the open jumper whenever possible. And as we'll see in a moment, he's shooting too well from beyond the arc to pass up any open looks there. It's in the basket area where Nelson does the least amount of damage, at least on a per-game basis, only getting 3.8 points per game there. The low points-per-game average doesn't mean it's wise to let him in there, though. He finishes at a 59.7% clip--his highest among any of the three splits discussed in this post--and only has his shot blocked 7% of the time. About the only bad we can say about Nelson's drives is that he rarely draws contact, having only 5 "and-one" opportunities from close range this season.

Of course, Nelson isn't doing all his damage with two-point jumpers, which are actually among the game's least efficient shots, or with drives to the basket, which understandably are high-percentage in nature. To date, Nelson is the league's sixth-most-accurate three-point marksman, drilling 45.5% of his treys. He benefits from an assist on 73% of those shots. That number seems high until one considers that 61 players are assisted on at least 90% of their three-pointers, including Orlando's own Keith Bogans (100%), Mickael Pietrus (93%), and Rashard Lewis (90%). All told, Nelson is in the bottom-fifth of players in assisted three-point field goals.

What can we take from this? Yes, nearly three in four of Nelson's three-pointers are of the spot-up variety. But one time in four, when the pick-and-roll defense takes away his penetration and/or the mid-range J, he takes a trey off the dribble.

Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Nelson's surge in scoring is that it isn't compromising his playmaking ability. Check out his advanced stats from basketball-reference.com: his assist rate is basically the same from last season to this season--it's up to 31.6 from 31.1--but he's cut his turnover rate to 13.2 while using more of the Magic's possessions. His usage rate has boomed to 22.6. We should note that it's only the median rate in Nelson's five-year career, but it's a huge upswing from a year ago, when his usage rate was a career-low 19.0.

There isn't much more that can be said about Nelson at this point. He can score in any number of ways, he can create for his teammates, he doesn't make too many costly mistakes, and he's a leader. He's doing all that this team has asked him to do and more.

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Wow…..I don’t feel that saying much else would do those numbers justice…..Just, Wow….

by FLYNN47 on Dec 30, 2008 9:01 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

He is the man

And fans still like to single him out. Of all the teams to have a bad game against he had to pick the Pistons!

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Dec 30, 2008 9:02 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Of course, I write this post talking about how great Nelson is, and he goes out and plays the worst game of the year

4-of-12 shooting, 0 assists, 2 turnovers, and—worst of all—5 fouls, keeping Anthony Johnson on the floor for 19 excruciating minutes.

by Ben Q Rock on Dec 30, 2008 9:17 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

As well as Nelson has been playing all year, he deserves a blip game during the season here and there. He was also probably still feeling the effects of his jammed toe from the last game.

by funny80sguy on Dec 30, 2008 12:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You jinxed him, Ben :)

Recommended listening: "Little Joy" by Little Joy

by Marie on Dec 30, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

how bad is anthony johnson?

good christ i felt like i could have defended stuckey better. dude is a stiff.

www.last.fm/user/mhetrick04

by mhetrick14 on Dec 30, 2008 9:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He’s pretty bad.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Dec 30, 2008 9:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Start posting about the Magic »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

Win Magic Tickets!

Keep watching this space for details on your chance to win tickets to an upcoming Orlando Magic home game, courtesy of T-Mobile.

Contact Us

General Twitter feed

Ben Q. Rock, Managing Editor / Press Contact

Eddy Rivera, Contributing Editor

Merch Booth

Check out our online store by clicking here.

Tiny Blogroll

Rather than include our complete blogroll in this space, we've decided to link to it instead. That way, you won't have to do as much scrolling. Enjoy.

SBNation.com Recent Stories

San Antonio Spurs guard Malik Hairston is fouled on a dunk attempt over the Golden State Warriors' Anthony Tolliver during the second half of an NBA basketball game at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Friday, March 19, 2010. The Spurs beat the Warriors, 147-116. (AP Photo/Bahram Mark Sobhani)

Spurs Torch Warriors, 147-116, In Highest Scoring Game Since 1991

Atlanta Hawks forward Marvin Williams, looks for a shot against Charlotte Bobcats forward Boris Diaw, left, of France, during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game at Philips Arena, Friday, March 19, 2010 in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)

Johnson Does His Best Jordan Impersonation, Hits Winning Shot In OT

New Orleans Hornets forward James Posey, left, reaches in for the ball as Denver Nuggets forward Carmelo Anthony looks for a shot in the fourth quarter of the Nuggets' 93-80 victory in an NBA basketball game in Denver on Thursday, March 18, 2010. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) link

Nuggets Rout Hornets 93-80

More from SBNation.com >


Managing Editor

Squareuserpicjpeg_small Ben Q Rock

Contributing Editor

Depaul_small erivera7