Orlando Magic = Title Contenders? Better Believe It

by erivera7 on Dec 28, 2008 2:30 PM EST in Analysis

Don't let Dwight Howard's smile fool you, his team is serious about contending for an NBA championship this season.

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

After winning 11 of their last 12 games, all against Western Conference opponents, and sporting a 24-6 record, the question has begun to spring up.

Are the Orlando Magic a legitimate threat to win an NBA Title this season?

It's the million dollar question that 'experts' are currently trying to answer. Some say yes, others say no. So what's the correct answer?

It's yes, and I'll explain why.

We always hear the cliche, "defense wins championships." Sure, there are a variety of ways to win an NBA Title but as the Boston Celtics proved last year, it usually comes down to defense.

In determining whether the Magic are a legit Title contender this year, I decided to take a look at the past NBA champions (since 2000) and see where each of them stood defensively. There's a plethora of defensive statistics out there but I chose to concentrate on one particular stat - Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions).

It's important to note that the majority of the teams below, in their respective year, possessed an offense above-average or better statistically. I could include a team's pace, since it plays a small factor in determining a team's Defensive Rating, but I'll leave it out to simplify my argument.

Below are the NBA champs since 2000 and their specific Defensive Rating (ranking & league average each in parentheses).

(2008) Boston Celtics - 98.9 (1st) (107.5)

(2007) San Antonio Spurs - 99.9 (2nd) (106.5)

(2006) Miami Heat - 104.5 (9th) (106.2)

(2005) San Antonio Spurs - 98.8 (1st) (106.1)

(2004) Detroit Pistons - 95.4 (2nd) (102.9)

(2003) San Antonio Spurs - 99.7 (3rd) (103.6)

(2002) Los Angeles Lakers - 101.7 (7th) (104.5)

(2001) Los Angeles Lakers - 104.8 (21st) (103.0)

(2000) Los Angeles Lakers - 98.2 (1st) (104.1)

As you can see, aside from the '01 Lakers, the '04 Pistons, and the '06 Heat, usually the defensive rating of an NBA champion hovered around the 98-100 range. To be fair to the '01 Lakers, they "turned on" their switch in the Playoffs and dominated their competition en route to their second consecutive Title. So their Defensive Rating during the regular season is a bit deceiving.

With that said, Orlando's current Defensive Rating of 100.3 closely matches the Defensive Rating's of recent Title winners. The Magic, at the moment, have the 3rd-best Defensive Rating in the NBA (league average is 106.6). Only the Boston Celtics (99.1) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (99.6) have better Defensive Rating's than Orlando. The Los Angeles Lakers are 4th (102.2).

It would be a mistake to dismiss the Magic as a Title contender, simply because the team's Defensive Rating falls in line with the Defensive Rating's of past NBA champions. The stats don't lie.

What's unfortunate for Orlando is that they are in the same conference with Boston & Cleveland, both teams off to historical paces record-wise. Many 'experts' aren't taking the Magic seriously because they don't believe it's possible Orlando can defeat both Boston AND Cleveland in a 7-game series. But they're missing the point, what the Celtics & Cavaliers are doing so far this season shouldn't invalidate the next sentence.

The Magic are a Title contender, the reality is that they'll just have a tough road to the Finals (Boston or Cleveland will have an equally tough road). It's foolish to presume Orlando can't defeat both Boston and Cleveland because as the Celtics' Kevin Garnett eloquently said last year after winning his first ring, "ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!"

Poll

Orlando Magic = Title Contenders or Pretenders?

Contenders

89 votes

Pretenders

4 votes

93 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Nice post

Only one objection: It’s probably better to look at defensive rating relative to the league average rather than pure defensive rating. Some years are more offensive, some more defensive, etc.

Aka, seeing where Orlando ranks relative to their competition in Drating and see how that ranking relates to where those teams ranked relative to their competition.

That makes Orlando seem good too (3rd in the league), so it’s not like it changes your point. Just a different angle to approach it.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Dec 28, 2008 6:42 PM EST reply actions

Thanks

Your objection about pointing out a team’s DRtg relative to the league average is fair .. maybe I’ll make a quick note of what the league average for DRtg is this year (it’s 106.6).

I tried to keep my post as simplistic as possible. Like I said, I could have talked about pace too, since that plays a small factor in determining a team’s DRtg, but I left it out to make my post nice and concise. I digress .. thanks for the suggestion, I appreciate it.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Dec 28, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions

Bulls Fan here

I like Orlando’s chances this year, I really do. Superman’s a beast and Hedo, Lewis and Nelson are really great complimentary pieces. Team’s great unlike our team’s version of the 3 stooges of Noc, Vinny and Hughes.

Only issue with this is that I don’t think the Magic can continue their run like this when it comes to the Playoffs. It all boils down to Howard who have traditionally struggled with bigger centers who can force him out of the low box area where he is most effective, guys like Illgauskas, Perkins…

Even then, I like this team and it can only get better…

by Alighieri on Dec 28, 2008 9:02 PM EST reply actions

The way Nelson and Lewis have played all season has mitigated Howard's ineffectiveness

Which may help in the playoffs.

Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation

by Evan Dunlap on Dec 28, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions

yes, if meer and lew continue to play this well, teams won't be as apt to double Mr. Kent.

They will have to respect the drive and kick as well as the drive and finish. With our inside-out game evolving, teams may be forced to leave the ever-so-dominant Dwight unwantingly single covered. Just keeps getting brighter. THANK YOU STAN.

by hevchv on Dec 28, 2008 10:56 PM EST up reply actions

The Magic

.. this year are better. The team is more mature and prepared for the road ahead in the playoffs. Orlando understands the regular season is a simple stepping stone to the post-season and sees the big picture ..

.. and even though the offense is down for Orlando, the defense is MUCH improved and a big reason why the team is a serious threat to win the Title this year.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Dec 29, 2008 2:38 AM EST reply actions