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Wondering if Mickael Pietrus is Really That Much Better than Maurice Evans, Keith Bogans, and Keyon Dooling

Orlando Magic guard Mickael Pietrus passes the ball as Atlanta Hawks guard Maurice Evans defends him during an NBA basketball preseason game in Orlando, Florida on Monday, October 6th, 2008

Orlando Magic guard Mickael Pietrus passes the ball around the defense of Atlanta Hawks guard Maurice Evans, the former Magic player whom Pietrus replaced.

File photo by Gary W. Green, the Orlando Sentinel

The Orlando Magic made their most important player acquisition this summer when they signed 26-year-old free-agent swingman Mickael Pietrus, formerly of the Golden State Warriors, to a four-year deal worth approximately $25 million, or the entire mid-level exception. Pietrus figures to start immediately at shooting guard, Orlando's weakest position last season. But is he really that much of an upgrade over Keith Bogans (35 games), Keyon Dooling (1 game), and Maurice Evans (46 games), who manned the starting two position last season? Can any team, even one with a frontcourt as strong as Orlando's, hope to win a championship with Mickael Pietrus in its starting lineup?

The answer is a bit hazy. We think he'll improve the defense at that position, but it's hard to tell about the offense. Let's take a look at some offensive statistics, with the obvious caveat being that Pietrus played under coach Don Nelson, known for playing unconventional, apositional lineups and encouraging them to run frenetically.

Comparative tables and analysis after the jump.

Star-divide

PPGRPGAPGSPGBPGTOPGMPG
Magic SGs (starts, 07/08)10.53.51.20.70.10.728.7
Mickael Pietrus (starts 07/08)10.56.50.91.30.40.729.6

As the above table shows, Pietrus and the Magic's two-guards last season scored at about the same rate; I would adjust on a per-minute basis, but the average minutes played are so close that to do so would be superfluous. Pietrus is clearly the better rebounder and he records steals at a solid rate. But for me, the ultimate determination of Pietrus' value to the offense won't be the points he produces, but rather the efficiency with which he produces those points. And that's where things begin to look less rosy for the Magic and Pietrus:

FG%3FG%FT%eFG%TS%
Magic SGs (starts, 07/08).470.385.758.574.590
Mickael Pietrus (starts, 07/08).457.360.629.521.541

Woof. Pietrus was a less efficient shooter than the Magic's starting two-guards in every respect last season. Yet the outlook need not be so grim. Let's compare Pietrus' statistics from two seasons ago, when he was a happier camper, with Orlando's starting shooting guard production last year:

PPGRPGAPGSPGBPGTOPGMPG
Magic SGs (starts, 07/08)10.53.51.20.70.10.728.7
Mickael Pietrus (starts 06/07)13.05.30.90.80.71.931.2

And his shooting...

FG%3FG%FT%eFG%TS%
Magic SGs (starts, 07/08).470.385.758.574.590
Mickael Pietrus (starts, 06/07).496.374.625.566.584

Indeed, if Mickael Pietrus returns to his previous best level of play, he will give the Magic reason to believe that he is a significant upgrade over Bogans, Dooling, and Evans. But that return to form, should it happen, will not be immediate; Pietrus still needs to adapt to Orlando's offense, something with which he appeared to struggle during the preseason. Here are two final tables detailing his putrid performance in the games that don't count:

PPGRPGAPGSPGBPGTOPGMPG
Magic SGs (starts, 07/08)10.53.51.20.70.10.728.7
Mickael Pietrus (preseason starts 08/09)10.24.52.01.30.82.327.2

FG%3FG%FT%eFG%TS%
Magic SGs (starts, 07/08).470.385.758.574.590
Mickael Pietrus (preseason starts 08/09).365.182.905.404.498

My advice for the Magic and their fans regarding Pietrus' play for the first month or so of the season: curb your enthusiasm. He may look awful early, but once he becomes better acquainted with Orlando's offense, he could break out. No, he won't ever be an All-Star, but he could turn some heads and prove to be a wise investment.

2 recs  |  Comment 7 comments |

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You know, this is not the kind of post I wanted to read right before the first game. I want to read that Pietrus will be amazing and that we are winning a championship this season. I don’t care how unrealistic it is, today should be a strictly optimistic day.

LETS GO BLUE!!!!!!!!!

by magic fanatic on Oct 29, 2008 10:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting point about Pietrus

I didn’t think he was a quality signing, and certainly a reach on management’s part, but I’m still skeptical that Rashard Lewis wasn’t badly overpaid either. So, there is that.

On the flip side, if Peitrus picks up steam as the year goes along, I’m not sure many will care. Of course, and I think this is a bigger deal than maybe some realize, but the Magic don’t have much cap room for next season to re-sign Turkoglu IF they wanted to without going over the luxury tax.

There is also a strong possibility that the luxury tax and salary cap levels will come down due to decreasing sales of everything due to the hard hit most American’s are taking at the moment financially. David Stern is a true putz if you ask me, but this isn’t the proof, yet, of that.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. It's simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get tangled, you tango on

by pookeyguru on Oct 29, 2008 10:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Pietrus is still trying to figure out who he is in this league and what he’s capable of doing. There’s a progression there, likely a lengthily one, that we’ll witness over the next year or two. As he recognizes his best skills as a player and how he helps the team the most, that’s when he’ll become more of specialist, more of a role player who plays within himself. Until he’ll over-reach on several plays and have some consistency problems.

I don’t know what to expect from Pietrus. He has a bunch of very interesting skills (his defense and slashing interest me the most) and his career could in so many different directions from where he is today … or it could stay exactly the same to the frustration of everyone.

by NBR on Oct 29, 2008 11:14 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Great Post

It’s clear that he is exactly what we need at the 2 spot. His offense may leave much to be desired, but his rebounding, steals, and blocks will more than make up for it. Also, now that JJ is in the rotation (knock on wood), I’m thinking we’ll get much better production from that position on both end of the court, overall. Plus, I really think Peaches will come around on the offensive side. Time will tell.

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Oct 29, 2008 11:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Our biggest problem last season, in my opinion, was the fact that shooting guards were having huge nights against us all the time. Pietrus doesn’t have to do a lot, just stop the other team’s starting sg from having a career night. We have plenty of other scoring options if he can’t make plays on offense.

If he can keep Larry Hughes and Ben Gordon from dropping 30 on us, than I believe this was a solid acquisition.

by magic fanatic on Oct 29, 2008 11:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Pietrus

.. is very underrated and a ton of GMs applauded the move the Magic made to sign him. I think he’s going to surprise some people this year, now that he’s a starter full-time.

I think, even with all those statistics, you need to take it with a grain of salt considering Don Nelson is an unconventional coach, and because of that, his players’ statistics will be skewed both good and bad.

I think having Pietrus at the 2 will maximize his talents as a player …

Contributing Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website.
Class of 2009 - DePaul University

by erivera7 on Oct 29, 2008 4:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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